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What does the ideal Hearthstone economy look like?
If there's one thing a lot of players can agree on right now, it's that the new F2P economy doesn't feel very good. What many can also agree on is that the previous economy didn't feel very good either. This shouldn't be too shocking since the economy was largely designed when there was a single set in Hearthstone (and it didn't feel too good at the time either, for the record). It hasn't really improved on a fundamental level since and, currently, it actually got worse in its first major update (which lets you know what side of generosity the people making the decisions lean in)
We have seen ranked rewards, duplicate protection, new log-in rewards, new player rewards, returning player rewards, and a few other bonuses to help make the game more affordable. However, we've also seen more content added to Hearthstone than ever before. Each expansion increases the effective cost of the game. Rotations increased it. More frequent nerfs increased it. Moving from adventures to expansions increased it. Now mid-season sets will increase it further.
That's not to say there aren't other positives of those changes and reasons for them (like keeping the meta fresher). But, regardless of those reasons, they unquestionably make the game harder to keep up with. Doubly so when the economy of the game is largely the same since inception when - again - there was only one set.
In short: it feels bad to spend money in Hearthstone for many and has likely been trending down over time. You can put a lot of money into the game and end up walking away wishing it had returned (a lot) more. In fact, that disappointment is probably a more common experience than spending money and it feeling good. This is a major issue to solve to improve the game's health, psychologically for players and financially for Blizzard.
In fact, I now count myself among that group that feels bad spending money. What we want to know is what the economy would look like where it felt good to spend that money and why would it feel good to spend there. In doing so, we might be able to find the ability of players and Blizzard to align their interests in the economy of the game and leave everyone better off.
Why does it feel good or bad to spend money in Hearthstone?
First, a bit about how I perceived my own spending in the game: as I've been playing since the launch, I built up a rather sizable foundation of a collection. For the past few years, I've also been playing almost exclusively Rogue. Both reduce my trouble in keeping up with all the new content. However, I still bought a large bundle each expansion, even if I didn't need it for more cards. Why? Because I wanted to craft cosmetics (specifically golden cards).
Whatever my conscious reasons for doing so, a deeper explanation for the psychology motivating that purchase resides in the fact that golden cards can send signals to other players. These signals could be about my enjoyment of the game, my dedication to it, my love of the Rogue class, a willingness to support the game I enjoy, or something similar. All this spending was voluntary driven by some sort of motivation to signal something about myself to others on some level. It was a social thing; not a personal utility thing.
Why does Hearthstone spending suddenly feel worse to me? Because the signal I feel spending money on the game now sends is that I'm OK with being ripped off and treated disrespectfully as a customer. I don't feel valued by Blizzard after seeing their first draft of the changes to the economy and the promises they confidentially made, before breaking. Since I'm not OK with that, I'm transitioning from spending about $240 a year on HS to $0 a year.
There are many whales that likely spend for similar reasons to me: sending a signal to other players. But what happens when the benefits to sending those signals drop off? Well, if there are fewer people to signal to, or the people you're signaling to don't care about your signal (or, even worse, think less of you for sending it), the value of that signal (and of spending money) drops. Correspondingly, when there are more people to signal to who care more about your signal, the value of the signal (and of spending money) rises.
tl;dr 1: Whale's spending feels better when lots of other players exist and care positively about it.
On the other hand, there are your more common players who spend money simply to keep up with the content. They see new cards, want to make some decks, explore ideas, and don't have enough gold saved up to do so as they'd like. As such, their spending is a bit more personally functional.
For these players, many report spending money on packs and coming away with far less than they would prefer. They find themselves still unable to explore even a fraction of the content they thought was cool or - perhaps even worse - regret exploring content they were wrong about that ends up being bad. They then find themselves wondering if they need to spend even more money to keep up, and when their first round of spending didn't go well, I'd guess many reach the conclusion they'd be better off just dropping the game altogether. Dropping $50 on new content and not getting a fraction of it is discouraging, to say the least. The reality missed the expectation by a mile.
Indeed, for this group (for whom I was also a part of during my early HS career), part of the game of Hearthstone is the sub-game of how do you maximize your in-game resources and access to content without spending money (or spending as little as possible). You spend a lot of time trying to beat the system, rather than enjoy the game. The game can, in some reason sense, become work. A video game job. For what it's worth, the resource-managing game/job was far less fun than the Hearthstone game. Feeling blocked out of fun content by a genre of micro-transaction games known for their exploitative nature doesn't encourage confidence that spending is a wise choice. Spending money only to verify that fear makes it worse.
tl;dr 2: Casual spending often feels bad because players are still left unable to explore after investing, causing many to stop altogether
In theory, then, it's plausible on a theoretical level that people would be more inclined to spend money repeatedly across the spectrum with a few tweaks that make spending money more rewarding.
- If the average players feel better spending money because it gets them the content they want, they're more likely to become repeat spenders. There is a match between their goal (getting the0 content) and the behavior intended to achieve it (spending money). Right now, we're in a space where a player can spend a lot of money and not be able to explore many ideas, or be close to exploring the ideas they want, and this can lead them to just tap out and stop spending forever. However, if players could get pretty close to their intended goal on their own through a F2P system and/or spending was more rewarding itself in terms of what it allowed you do, players might spend that bit of extra cash to cross the finish line for their new decks more regularly over time.
- If the average players feel better spending money, the Whales may also begin to feel better about spending money because now the signals they're trying to send are seen and cared about positively by more players. When lots of people are happy with Hearthstone, the value of sending signals is high, and so the value of spending is high. When lots of people are unhappy, the value of sending signals is low, and so spending should drop. Whales are happy when lots of other players are happy.
- If the middle-tier spenders who live between these two extremes no longer have to spend money on cards because they are getting enough content for free, they may not stop spending on Hearthstone as some would anticipate. Instead, they may begin to transition to cosmetic spenders, as their budget previously dedicated to missing content just got freed up. If I don't need to spend $80 on that bundle simply to play the cards I want to play, I might feel better about spending for several cosmetics in game instead, like golden cards, hero portraits, or other cosmetics that don't exist for some reason (like fancy game boards, alternative artwork on cards, clickables, new mana crystal colors, etc)
Now before anyone comes at me with the "Blizzard must have done internal analysis to reach the conclusions they reached, so they must know better when it comes to making money and the F2P they have is the best," remember that Blizzard seems to have trouble understanding what "more gold" means (among other things). Whatever their analysis - or lack thereof - it's clear that it doesn't always lead to a slam dunk in execution.
We don't know what analysis they have done or not done, but it seems plausible the current systems aren't optimal. In fact, it's almost a guarantee; few systems in life cannot be improved.
What does a better economy look like?
This brings us to the matter of what a better, more player-centric economy would look like in Hearthstone. Obviously, on one extreme, all the cards would be completely free and that's much better for all players of the game, but I'll assume that's too generous and doesn't make enough money. We're still trying to sell content so Hearthstone makes money and exists. The question becomes how much of that content can be given away for free to increase revenue?
From what we know, you can currently spend $120 on two pre-order bundles and not come close to a full set. Correspondingly, this means that players could earn 120 packs regularly between expansions without running out of content to grind for or purchase. Far from it, in fact, especially as new mini-sets get introduced. (And that doesn't even account for time required to catch up to previous expansions you may have missed)
I think it's reasonable to suggest, as a baseline, that players be able to gain 100g a day (the price of a pack) through simply playing the game if they're grinding for resources (I'm not talking about daily quests; I'm talking strictly in-game play. Dailies should supplement players who don't play regularly or a lot to help them catch up). I picked this as a starting point because it's an easy number to understand, doesn't provide all the content if you hit it every day between expansions, and gives players a nice, immediately-satisfying reward at the end of their daily games.
I'm not talking about a lot of play to achieve that 100g, either. I think somewhere in the range of 20-30 games. Effectively, this would be the previous gold-per-win system with the 100g daily cap, except you'd earn 5-10 gold per win, rather than 3.3. Assuming a 50% win rate, you should get your daily gold in 10-15 wins or 20-30 total games. If you wanted to convert that to XP and adjust the reward track accordingly (or even do some diminishing rewards system where the first few games reward more gold than the last few), that's fine too, so long as it captures the general idea and averages.
Imagine that system existed now instead of what we have or had. How much more would you feel like your time in-game was valued? How much happier would you feel? How many more new ideas could you (or other, average players, if you're not one) explore when an expansion dropped, or over the following weeks and months?
Now the question as far as Blizzard is concerned is whether such a system translates positive player feelings into cash for them. On that point, I don't think I (or even Blizzard) could say with much confidence. But it does sound plausible that a casual player who earned 60% of the set would feel better about spending a bit of cash they otherwise wouldn't to explore a few more ideas, since they have a foundation already. They would be using that purchase to round out a collection, instead of try to build it, so there's less room for disappointment and more potential for repeat business. That mid-tier player might be happy with the collection from gold and feel interested in spending a bit more on cosmetics. Both casuals and mid-tiers might engage with the game more because their time in the client feels more rewarding. The Whales would probably spend just as much as they always do anyway because they never really cared too much about gold to begin with, as they have cash.
And I think all players would be more interested in recommending that game to others. That's more potential customers being reached and more potential for future buy-in. That certainly beats the scenario now where I would actively avoid recommending the game to others because I know how hard it is to get into.
In fact, I think it would put the developers and players on the same side of the issue. Players want a game that feels rewarding to invest in and play, and they also want that game to be profitable inasmuch as it continues to exist and grow. They might be more willing to pay into such a system as a form of willing patronage, rather than it feeling like the money is being scammed out of them and wanting to try and "beat" the developer's systems or withdraw from the game altogether
So what do you think? Where does that line of a much better (but still profitable) economy reside? Would reducing the cost of the game result in you engaging with it more? Spending more? Changing spending habits?
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