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2020 Class Stock Report Pt. 2

With the college football regular season ended, I figured it would be a good time to look at how our views on these players have changed throughout the year. Just like the last time, the stock report reflects a combination of stats and what I've seen from tape (note: I'm not even 50% complete with my film watching for the year).

Quarterback
Stock up
Joe Burrow (LSU)- He's played himself into a Heisman trophy and the likely 1.01 of the NFL draft. If you need a QB in SF, I have no problem taking him 1.01. His improvement from last year to this year has been the biggest in college football in my opinion.
Jalen Hurts (OU)- I still have major questions with his ability to run an NFL offense, but he has played his way up the draft board this year. While I don't think they are similar talents, if a team commits to him like the Ravens did with Jackson, Hurts could be an effective dynasty QB.
Anthony Gordon (WSU)- Won the starting job coming into the year, likely earning himself a day 3 draft selection. Questions will always come from a Leach QB, and rightfully so with Gordon, but I like him more than Gardner as prospects so I'll watch where he lands closely.
Stock Down
Tua Tagovailoa (Bama)- This has nothing to do with his play and everything to do with the injury. While he is expected to make a full recovery, this is a major procedure that forces his stock to fall a little bit.
Justin Herbert (Oregon)- I think he went and Matt Barkley'ed himself. He has physical traits, but he has some ways to go mentally and needs to clean up his mechanics. He's best going to a team that can let him sit for a year
Jake Fromm (UGA)- I fully believe Fromm returns for his senior year. His draft stock has likely taken a hit due to his mediocre play this season. His ball placement and anticipation throws make me think he can be a low end NFL starter, but I don't love his game at all.
Jacob Eason (Washington)- This has been a tale of two halves for Eason for me. I was impressed with him during the first half of the season but his play has dropped off. This is another guy who I expect to go back and think it's a good idea if he does
Jordan Love (Utah State)- Another QB who has shown less than I want this year. There's a chance Love goes back to clean up some of the mental issues he showed this year.
Additional stock down: Nate Stanley (Iowa), Sam Ehlinger (Texas)

Running Back
Stock Up
Najee Harris (Bama)- I think Harris has impressed me the most of all RBs this year. His agility, short area quickness and speed are incredible for a guy his size. With good vision, pass catching abilities and finishing ability, he's worked his way into my top 5 RBs
JK Dobbins (tOSU)- What Dobbins has done against Michigan, MSU, PSU and Wisconsin this year is impressive. After a down sophomore year, Dobbins has shown that he has every skill necessary for a running back at the next level. His long speed isn't elite, but he's a top 3 back to me.
Chuba Hubbard (OSU)- His receiving game has taken a slight hit, but I have no doubts about his ability there. His speed and burst are the things that jump off the tape when watching him. My fears with his interior running still exist but are lesser than they were coming into the season.
Kylin Hill (Miss State)- I think he's a little bit slept on when talking about the most talented backs in the season. Named to Bruce Feldman's freak list coming into the season, look for him to have an impressive combine. I could see him going earlier than we expect.
Travis Etienne (Clemson)- His expanded pass catching abilities have me sold. While he still has work to do, he's no longer a liability. I now believe he's good enough to stay on the field on third downs.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LSU)- CEH has made himself some money this year. I've been impressed by his rushing talents but even more impressed with his work in the receiving game.
Cam Akers (FSU)- My biggest concern with him coming into the season was his vision/processing. His improvements in that area + progressions from another year playing RB have me excited about him in the NFL.
Stock Down
Eno Benjamin (ASU)- ASU's line has been a mess this season. Because of that, Eno doesn't have the running lanes that he had last year. I'm still impressed by what he's done on the field, go watch his Oregon game, so I'm not concerned about drafting him. His stock is down relative to other guys in the class (Hubbard, Harris) but I'm still smashing that draft button on him in rookie drafts.
KeShawn Vaughn (Vandy)- Another mess of an offense that forced worse production for a player. He's shown more in the passing game so this is another situation where I would still be comfortable drafting the talent.
A.J Dillion (BC)- I was never a fan of Dillion. A big question for me was his pass catching, and he's done nothing to answer those questions for me. I have zero interests in drafting a 6'0 240 lb with no pass catching skills in today's NFL
Additional stock down: Joshua Kelly (UCLA), Trey Sermon (OU), Kennedy Brooks (OU), Anthony MacFarland (Maryland), Brian Robinson (Bama)
Stock Neutral
D'Andre Swift (UGA)- One of my favorite RB prospects in years. I believe he is a top 5 pass catcher in the league the day that he gets drafted. His talents running the ball have me excited about his prospects of being an elite fantasy running back for years to come.
Jonathan Taylor (Wisco)- I wasn't super concerned with his pass catching coming into the year as he showed me the ability to be effective there last year. The workload is a little concerning, but we only want these backs for one contract anyway.
Zack Moss (Utah)- Has impressed me more than previous years but he suffered yet another injury this year. I like his talents but am concerned with him staying healthy.

Wide Receiver
Stock Up
Devonta Smith (Bama)- Currently has better stats than Jeudy. Not an elite athlete, but he's a great route runner with sure hands. I currently have him as a top 50 pick in real life which would bode well for his dynasty outlook.
Tee Higgins (Clemson)- Concerned with his COD, hip flexibility and agility but not concerned with his ball skills and ability to get vertical. I'm projecting good draft capital for him unless he absolutely bombs the combine.
Michael Pittman Jr. (the real USC)- Absolutely showed out this year. Earned himself the honor of being a Biletnikoff finalist. With a good showing at the Senior Bowl, we could be looking at one of the biggest risers.
Henry Ruggs (Bama)- Saying he has elite speed is disrespectful. With the improvements that he's made, he's starting to win in ways that aren't just being faster than everyone else. I intend on drafting him in most of my leagues. I would rather miss on him than him reach his potential on someone else's team.
Ceedee Lamb (OU)- Their game without him showed how much they need him on the field. Wouldn't argue anyone who had him at WR1.
Antonio Gandy Golden (Liberty)- In the little tape that I've seen on him this year, I've been impressed. He seemed to improve across the board, specifically with his releases and route running. I'm a big fan of AGG.
Justin Jefferson (LSU)- One of the biggest beneficiary of the new LSU offense. He's putting up big numbers and has looked good doing it. He's not Ja'Marr Chase, but I like what I've seen so far.
Others: Bryan Edwards (the fake USC), Devin Duvernay (Texas), Sage Surrat (Wake), Brandon Aiyuk (ASU), Denzel Mims (Baylor), Isaiah Hodgins (Oregon State), Tamorrion Terry (FSU), Juwan Johnson (Oregon), Chase Claypool (ND)
Stock Down
Jerry Jeudy (Bama)- This one might be a little hot takey. I love his talent, there are very few hole to his game. However, he hasn't dominated like a guy of his caliber should. I know he has other great WRs, but he hasn't taken over like I want him to.
Tyler Johnson (Minnesota)- Draft capital matters and I'm concerned about his. I could see a Kelvin Harmon like drop happen to him.
Colin Johnson (Texas)- Injuries / isn't good
Jalen Reagor- Love his abilities, had a terrible statistical season. Coming into the year, he was pushing for WR3 to me. Right now, he is firmly outside of that.
Laviska Shenault- Injuries + bad statistical season have his stock down. I'm concerned with the injuries, not concerned with his talent. Would smash the draft button in the late first if his stock falls enough.
Tylan Wallace (OSU)- Tore his acl, probably returning.
Others: Michigan Trio, TJ Vasher (Texas Tech), Tyler Vaughns (real USC)
Stock Neutral
Aaron Fuller (Wash), Quartney Davis (A&M), KJ Hill (tOSU)

TE
Stock Up
Brycen Hopkins (Purdue)- He's impressed me a lot this year. The Evan Engram comps are going to happen, but I think that sells Hopkins' blocking ability short
Cole Kmet (ND), Hunter Bryant (Wash), Jacob Breeland (Oregon)
Stock Down
Grant Calceterra (OU)- Retired due to concussions
Albert O (Mizzou)
Stock Neutral
Colby Parkinson (Stanford), Jared Pinkney (Vandy)

Conclusion
Overall, I'm happy with how this class has performed. From a film perspective, the studs haven't lost a step. Despite worse stats, I think Laviska is a better WR this year than he was last. Additionally, there have been some guys emerge who have looked great. Edwards-Helaire, Aiyuk, Jefferson, and Hopkins have all came onto the scene in a big way. I'm excited for the coming months. This draft season is going to be a lot of fun.
Who has made jumps in your rankings? Who are you fading? Who makes your pants tight thinking about them on your dynasty teams?
Looking forward to interacting with you guys! Thanks for the read.
submitted by young-steve to DynastyFF

COVID-19 Update + 7 Country Review - June 12, 2020

COVID-19 Update + 7 Country Review - June 12, 2020

Commentary, June 12, 2020

This weekend, I’ll post another 10 county roundup. In the meantime, I’d like to call attention to a few things on the Southern California summary, VS2.
Looking at the red alert column, it should be no surprise that LA county is red in every area except for case doubling days (Kern), case fatality rate (Santa Clara), and fatality doubling days (Orange). We would expect that on an absolute basis, given the population of the county. But even in normalized terms, i.e., daily new cases per 1M, LA at 153 is well ahead of the runner-up, Orange, at 109. In cumulative fatalities per 1M, LA county, at 270, is well ahead of Riverside at 148 and 3 times that of SD county at 91.
One could easily dismiss the bad numbers in the case area as a product of more testing, but that doesn’t explain the low doubling day rate for fatalities. Orange and Kern are at a very low 20 and 23 days respectively, and LA is barely out of the DD zone at 34 days.
I’ll post an update on the states in a few days, but it’s clear that Florida, Georgia, and Texas are all competing to knock California and New York out of the running. The effective transmission rate - Rt - is at 1.01 in Florida and right at 1 in Texas. Only in California is it at a relatively safe level of 0.98.
I live in Encinitas, and our case rate has doubled over the last month. I wasn’t sure why, but I just learned tonight that this was largely the result of private gatherings in people’s homes. The public health people found this out through case tracking. That may be one of the reasons why the numbers in Orange are growing so quickly.

Seven Countries

The first question you might ask is why? We’re here in the U.S. What does COVID-19 in Ecuador have to do with us?
The seven countries I’m following can be divided into two groups. In the first group are the U.S., German, Sweden, and Denmark. These are rich, industrialized countries with robust health care systems. Theoretically, one would expect a similar outcome with all of them. But only two of them, Germany and Denmark, serve as a model of what we should have done and ought to do in the future.
The other three countries -- Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico -- represent economies quite different from ours: poorer, fewer resources, very different cultures. Here again, one might expect similar outcomes. But Ecuador, as you will see, is experiencing a much different fate than Brazil and Mexico.
It is especially important for us to understand what is happening in Mexico, since it’s our neighbor and our economies are heavily intertwined. Trump would have us believe that a simplistic device like a wall will suffice to banish Mexico from our minds; coronavirus is forcing us to come to grips with the real world.
The most unfortunate thing of all is that I have to describe what’s happening in terms of individual countries. The US has abdicated it’s position of international leadership, and there is no coordinated international campaign to deal with the pandemic. I suspect history will mark this as one of humankind’s stupidest errors.
Brazil, Ecuador and Mexico
The prevalence index on E1 shows a wide disparity in initial numbers. Mexico starts at the beginning of May at 6,000; Brazil at 2274, and Ecuador at around 800. The reason? I believe it’s because Ecuador was struck early and very hard in the beginning of March in Guayaquil, a port city. Before then, not many people paid attention to CV19. By the end of March, people were literally dying in the streets. Experts estimate that there were nearly 10,000 excess deaths in Guayas province alone. Testing was almost nonexistent. E3 shows the effects of this outbreak at the start of May. There’s a jump just after 5/3 that puts Ecuador ahead of every other nation in the chart.
The Ecuadorian model may not be one to fully emulate, but at least President Moreno got a new health minister, Carlos Zevallos, at the end of March and tasked him with getting the outbreak under control. The results have been mixed.
E6 shows that daily fatalities are trending downward slightly, to 35 to 40 a day. On a per 1M basis - see E7 - they’re doing better than everyone but Denmark and Germany. On the other hand, case doubling days are barely out of the DD zone at 31 days (E4) and fatality doubling days are the same, at 32 days (E9).
Brazil is run by a malignant narcissistic thug (sound familiar?) - Jair Bolsonaro. While local leaders in Sao Paulo and other major cities begged for help in fighting the crisis, Bolsonaro mocked them, calling fears about coronavirus a “neurosis.”
And that is why Brazil is important for us to understand. The incompetence and arrogance of a president is not unique to the U.S.; it brough similar results in Brazil. As the area graph on CD3 shows, it is now gobbling up a large portion of the area previously occupied by the U.S. Brazil represents 2.7% of the world’s population, but has 16% of the cases, representing an “excess” of 643,000 cases and 31,000 deaths. E1 shows that Brazil started quite high on the prevalence index, at 2,274 on May 1. Why? Because there is little or no testing. “Cases” get on the books when people die in the streets or come straggling into overcrowded hospitals.
The angle of the upward trend line on E2 shows the rapidity with which Brazil has become engulfed by CV19. At 3,700 cases per 1M, it is now ahead of everyone but Sweden and the US. In daily new cases (E3) it is running ahead of everyone, with around 130 per day. One of the scariest things, as E4 shows, is that the case doubling rate is at 13 days. Think what that means: the 775,000 cases today are scheduled to become 1.5 million cases by the end of June.
In Mexico, President Lopez Obrador didn’t take the pandemic seriously until the end of March. He made a spectacle of appearing in public, hugging old ladies, and chiding the press for causing panic. While this was clearly wrong, looking at the prevalence index on E1 helps explain it. As late as May 1, when there were already outbreaks in most major cities, but especially in Tijuana, the index was at 6,000. The prevalence index for Encinitas one month earlier was 3,500. So why was it so high? No testing.
Mexico is a country that makes ventilators for the US, yet has few ventilators of its own. Americans go to Tijuana to get cheap surgeries, but millions of Mexicans can’t afford even cheap medical care. So it is not hard to understand that the lack of testing, creating a super-high prevalence index, hid the real problem until it was too late.
Today, the case doubling rate is around 14 days (E4), and it’s been that way for 6 weeks. E6 shows that daily fatalities, probably severely undercounted, are at 555, just under the grip toll of the US and Brazil. On a normalized bases per 1M people (E7) Mexico is right between Sweden at 3.5 and Brazil at 4.9.
This is already having a severe impact on hospitals in all the border states, especially California and Arizona. 1.5 million Americans live full time in Mexico, and when the hospitals fill with CV19 patients, they come flooding across the border.
Sweden, Germany, Denmark, and the U.S.
This is a tale of two pairs of countries. Germany and Denmark took the pandemic extremely seriously and imposed what some called draconian measures to contain it. The US took the same position as Brazil, and Sweden, without a blatant contempt for science, opted for a strategy of “herd immunity” to avoid economic disruption.
Today, both Denmark and Germany are open for business. The daily new cases per 1M people (E3) has both countries at the bottom with around 6 per million. E7 shows the situation is the same with daily fatalities per 1M: close to zero. In fact, today Denmark had zero fatalities, compared to 898 in the US. Yes, Denmark is only 5 million people, 1/70 th the size of the U.S. But 70 times 0 still equals 0.
Sweden for a time was heralded as the “model” for the covid-deniers in the U.S. In absolute terms, as CD3 shows, cumulative deaths of 4,795 are dwarfed by the U.S.’s 115,000 deaths. But then you look at E5, where Sweden is pushing the top of the chart at 469 deaths per 1M, way ahead of the US number of 348, and dwarfing the number for Denmark and Germany at around 100.
E6 shows that even in absolute terms, Sweden is outpacing its neighbors, with 36 deaths per day, compared to 2 for Denmark. If Denmark were Sweden’s size, their toll would be 4 per day. On a normalized basis (E7) Sweden outpaces everyone except Brazil and Mexico at 3.5, compared to the US rate of 2.5 and the German and Danish rate of less than 1.
Sweden’s case fatality rate is also at a disturbing 11.4% (E8), and this is not because they don’t have the capacity to test everyone. Denmark and Germany are at 5% and even the U.S. is at 6%.
As E2 shows, it’s not just the fatalities that are troubling in Sweden. The cumulative cases per 1M are at 4,700 above everyone but the U.S. and rising more quickly in the past 2 weeks than in the previous 4 weeks. E3 shows that on a normalized daily basis, Sweden is also way up there, at 102 per day, ahead of the US at 71. Sweden’s case doubling number is barely out of the DD zone, at around 33 days.
Finally, in what may be a lesson for all countries who would like to pretend the virus has been vanquished, Swedish citizens are now being banned from several European countries that are opening up to tourism and trade. They’re considered too dangerous to be around.
Donations: quite a few of you have offered various types of donations to show your appreciation for these updates. I have everything I need, so I’d rather you contribute to a great cause instead. The link below is to donate to the Black Visions Collective in Minneapolis. Sorry, no bank accounts, just credit cards.
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Want to see the raw data? Here it is.
Want to see all the charts? Here they are.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and stay healthy!

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