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If you're mocking to... Tampa Bay
Tampa bay has one of the most interesting offseasons in the NFL coming up which is going to greatly change what our needs are in the draft dependant on who we keep and who we let go. So before we get into the draft nitty gritty, I thought it would be appropriate to state the current dilemma Tampa is in. Tampa currently has appx $15 million in cap space for the 2019 season as of today’s date (25th February and according to OTC), and with significant free agents in Donovan Smith (OT), Kwon Alexander (MLB), and Adam Humphries (WR) who the Bucs would most certainly love to keep. The issue is, Tampa can maybe keep two of them if they are lucky, and that in itself would be at the cost of DeSean Jackson (WR $10m), Beau Allen (DT $3.5m), Mitch Unrein (DT $2.75m), Will Gholston (DT/DE $3.75m), Evan Smith (G/C $2m) and potentially Bryan Anger (P $3m). Those savings add an additional $25m, giving us $40m in total. Thus creating a massive loss of talent and depth along the DL in particular, and DJax.
The talk amongst beat reporters is that Kwon is looking for a multi year deal at 10m prior to his injury, and if a multi year deal cannot be done for Smith, then the franchise tag will be applied to him at $14m. There is no way I see Smith not being a Buc next year, so I’m going to deduct his salary, giving the Bucs $28m. A team is going to offer Humphries WR2 money and he is going to move on from Tampa so bye Felicia (I don't blame him at all). In contrast, Kwon is so hard to predict. Our FO have a history of loving to pay (even at times overpay, see: Brate, Cameron) our own players - rightly so. Therefore, I can easily foresee Licht paying Kwon 4y $40m…. That said, I think he either stays for 1 year on a prove it deal, or ultimately signs for something along the lines of 3y/$27m. There are grumblings however that he will be a highly sought after FA by some teams in desperate need of a LB, and may pay $10m plus. I personally think he stays, but he could well be gone. As such I will attribute $9m to him next year. Thus leaving Tampa with just $21m for depth players, draft picks salaries, and cap for the year to bring in players mid season.
Long story short. The Bucs are going to be seriously devoid of any kind of talented backups pretty much at any position, especially along the DL and OL. So if good players are falling, feel free to draft them. This is also me accounting and hoping that McCoy stays and is not cut or traded.
Tendencies Turning now to our draft history. Jason Licht is a wheeler and dealer, he loves trades:
- 2014 - 1 trade to move up into round 5.
- 2015 - Traded into the second round to pick Ali Marpet. Traded up in the 4th round to pick Kwon Alexander.
- 2016 - Traded back from pick 9 to 11 in the first round. Then traded back into the second round to pick someone who shall remain nameless.
- 2017 - Traded back into the end of the third round to pick Kendell Beckwith. Traded up in the 7th round to get Stevie Tu'ikolovatu.
- 2018 - Traded with Buffalo down from 7 to 12. Traded down in the second round with the Pats. Traded up in the third to pick Alex Cappa.
Licht will also always draft for a perceived need in the first two rounds unless the BPA is too much to leave (case in point being OJ Howard in 2017 when DE/CB was our biggest need arguably):
- 2014 - Need a pass catcher. That Mike Evans guy is ok.
- 2015 - Need a QB and protection. Jameis, Smith and Marpet.
- 2016 - Need secondary and Edge. VH3 and Noah Spence.
- 2017 - You can’t not pick OJ there.
- 2018 - Need DL and secondary. Pick Vea, Davis and Stewart in the first two rounds.
Licht is also not afraid to pick producers from Small schools: Marpet (Hobart - D3), Justin Watson (Penn) and Alex Cappa (Humboldt State - D2). If you can play, and dominate at that level, then you can play.
QB. A backup might be needed if we don’t re-sign Ryan Griffin. Arians loves Jameis. He’s staying.
RB. If the value is right, we will probably pull the trigger knowing Licht, but the talk on the beat is that Jones is not a lost cause and that his issues are all OL based (they’re not wrong with that statement). Turns out being met 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage is bad. I also see this as being plastered over with a FA running back so we will see.
WR. We will pick one. Most likely the 5th or later. It’s what Licht does. We have an established 1 and 2 in Evans and Godwin, if you can find the right value for a slot receiver, then go for it earlier if it makes sense.
Offensive line. Potentially two tackles and one guard even if the value is right. We need at least one premium pick on either a tackle or a guard. Demar Dotson is 34 this season, and if we can’t fix Smith, he will need to be replaced. Also RG has been a black hole of talent and been worse than a turnstile since the retirement of Mankins, and it is very obviously ruining the OL as a whole unit. LT, RT and RG.
TE. If we trade Cam Brate, we could spend a late pick on a backup. If not, we have the best TE set in the league imo.
DE. A long term answer is needed, but there are more pressing issues. If the value is right here however, feel free to pick away in front of need due to positional value.
DT. I expect we will have next to no depth this offseason. Expect multiple picks across the DL and I wouldn’t be surprised if we spend a premium pick on a pass rushing 3T so we have options with GMac moving forward. I think this will be more of a value meets moderate need pick. I personally feel the 3 round is the sweet spot (or a trade back into the second).
LB. If Kwon leaves, this becomes our biggest need. As in feel free to mock White to us number 5 overall type need. If he stays, we could well pick another LB early as Kendal Beckwith’s long term health is in question (leg injury in a car crash kept him on IR all of last year. It’s been about 12 months since the accident and not much progress). If that is the case, it will need to be a SAM LB, or an EDGE who is strong enough to keep contain in a 3-4.
Secondary. It’s a need. Trust me it is. I just don’t see us making a premium pick on it as we spent 3 picks (2 second rounders and a 4th rounder who has looked very promising in Whitehead) last year, and need to see progression. I think this is addressed by bringing in a mid tier FA to help guide the young room. But if you disagree, then feel free to spend a 2nd /3rd round pick on a CB. I doubt we spend a 1st on one unless we trade down in the first.
For some guidance, here are a couple of positional mocks so you can kind of get the idea of what a Bucs draft might look like.
1.05 - DL 2.39 - OT/OG 3.70 - DT 4.101 - RB 5.134 - LB 6.166 - WR
1.10 - OT (Moving back with Denver for their two second rounders as was the price for Buffalo last year) 2.39 - IDL 2.XX - OG 2.XX - DE 3.70 - BPA DL/LB 4.101 - RB 5.134 - LB 6.166 - WR
Probe's Mock Draft v1.1 (Pre-Combine) -- With Trades and Explanations
- McCarron Bucs
- Tyrod Broncos
- Fitz Browns
- Foles Eagles (for now)
- McCown Retired
- Cousins Vikings
- Brees Saints
- Bradford Bills
- Bridgewater Cardinals
- Keenum Jets
- Smokin' Jay Retired
- Buffalo Gets: 1.03; Indy Gets: 1.21, 1.22, 2.53, 2019 2nd
- Arizona Gets: 1.04; Cleveland Gets: 1.15, 2.47, 2019 1st
- Indy Gets: 1.06; NYJ Gets: 1.21, 2.36, 2019 2nd (Bills)
- Atlanta Gets: 1.19; Dallas Gets: 1.26, 3.90, 2019 4th
- NYJ Gets: 1.29; Jacksonville Gets: 2.35 (via Colts), 4.107
I did my best not to overpay for any pick. The hardest thing to do is to predict what both teams would accept when looking at what is available on the board.
|1.02||Giants||Saquon Barkley||RB||Penn State|
|1.03||Bills (via Colts)||Josh Rosen||QB||UCLA|
|1.04||Cardinals (via Browns)||Lamar Jackson||QB||Louisville|
|1.05||Broncos||Quenton Nelson||OG||Notre Dame|
|1.06||Colts (via Jets)||Bradley Chubb||Edge||NC State|
|1.08||Bears||Denzel Ward||CB||Ohio State|
|1.11||Dolphins||Tremaine Edmunds||LB||Virginia Tech|
|1.12||Bengals||Mike McGlinchey||OT||Notre Dame|
|1.14||Packers||Billy Price||C/OG||Ohio State|
|1.15||Browns (via Cardinals)||Roquan Smith||LB||Georgia|
|1.19||Falcons (via Cowboys)||Derwin James||S||Florida State|
|1.20||Lions||Harold Landry||Edge||Boston College|
|1.21||Jets (via Bills, via Colts)||Baker Mayfield||QB||Oklahoma|
|1.22||Colts (via Bills)||Isaiah Wynn||OL||Georgia|
|1.23||Rams||Leighton Vander Esch||LB||Boise State|
|1.26||Cowboys (via Falcons)||Da'Ron Payne||DT||Alabama|
|1.29||Jets (via Jaguars)||Derrius Guice||RB||LSU|