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If you're mocking to... Tampa Bay

So being a fan of one of the smallest market teams, I thought I would give this a go as an armchair expert and very very novice draft scout. There will be mistakes and some things I have missed, but I'm sure the other Buc fans can help out with pointing those out. Regardless, here is an attempt of this.
Background
Tampa bay has one of the most interesting offseasons in the NFL coming up which is going to greatly change what our needs are in the draft dependant on who we keep and who we let go. So before we get into the draft nitty gritty, I thought it would be appropriate to state the current dilemma Tampa is in. Tampa currently has appx $15 million in cap space for the 2019 season as of today’s date (25th February and according to OTC), and with significant free agents in Donovan Smith (OT), Kwon Alexander (MLB), and Adam Humphries (WR) who the Bucs would most certainly love to keep. The issue is, Tampa can maybe keep two of them if they are lucky, and that in itself would be at the cost of DeSean Jackson (WR $10m), Beau Allen (DT $3.5m), Mitch Unrein (DT $2.75m), Will Gholston (DT/DE $3.75m), Evan Smith (G/C $2m) and potentially Bryan Anger (P $3m). Those savings add an additional $25m, giving us $40m in total. Thus creating a massive loss of talent and depth along the DL in particular, and DJax.
The talk amongst beat reporters is that Kwon is looking for a multi year deal at 10m prior to his injury, and if a multi year deal cannot be done for Smith, then the franchise tag will be applied to him at $14m. There is no way I see Smith not being a Buc next year, so I’m going to deduct his salary, giving the Bucs $28m. A team is going to offer Humphries WR2 money and he is going to move on from Tampa so bye Felicia (I don't blame him at all). In contrast, Kwon is so hard to predict. Our FO have a history of loving to pay (even at times overpay, see: Brate, Cameron) our own players - rightly so. Therefore, I can easily foresee Licht paying Kwon 4y $40m…. That said, I think he either stays for 1 year on a prove it deal, or ultimately signs for something along the lines of 3y/$27m. There are grumblings however that he will be a highly sought after FA by some teams in desperate need of a LB, and may pay $10m plus. I personally think he stays, but he could well be gone. As such I will attribute $9m to him next year. Thus leaving Tampa with just $21m for depth players, draft picks salaries, and cap for the year to bring in players mid season.
Long story short. The Bucs are going to be seriously devoid of any kind of talented backups pretty much at any position, especially along the DL and OL. So if good players are falling, feel free to draft them. This is also me accounting and hoping that McCoy stays and is not cut or traded.
Tendencies Turning now to our draft history. Jason Licht is a wheeler and dealer, he loves trades:
  • 2014 - 1 trade to move up into round 5.
  • 2015 - Traded into the second round to pick Ali Marpet. Traded up in the 4th round to pick Kwon Alexander.
  • 2016 - Traded back from pick 9 to 11 in the first round. Then traded back into the second round to pick someone who shall remain nameless.
  • 2017 - Traded back into the end of the third round to pick Kendell Beckwith. Traded up in the 7th round to get Stevie Tu'ikolovatu.
  • 2018 - Traded with Buffalo down from 7 to 12. Traded down in the second round with the Pats. Traded up in the third to pick Alex Cappa.
In 5 drafts, he has traded 10 times. Either up to get his guy, or down if he thinks he can get them later. He tends to like trading down where possible early, so he can be more manoeuvrable in the middle rounds to get guys who are falling. This gives us one major tell. His board is nothing like yours. Case in point being that after the 2018 draft, Licht openly said that he had Vita Vea higher on his board than Derwin James (when asked about being comfortable about trading down in the first round), also note that James was the very next player on his board. He seems to be a man who has positional value and will stick to that (though it makes the Aguayo pick more confusing).
Licht will also always draft for a perceived need in the first two rounds unless the BPA is too much to leave (case in point being OJ Howard in 2017 when DE/CB was our biggest need arguably):
  • 2014 - Need a pass catcher. That Mike Evans guy is ok.
  • 2015 - Need a QB and protection. Jameis, Smith and Marpet.
  • 2016 - Need secondary and Edge. VH3 and Noah Spence.
  • 2017 - You can’t not pick OJ there.
  • 2018 - Need DL and secondary. Pick Vea, Davis and Stewart in the first two rounds.
Licht also has some very obvious trends. He will pick at least one WR every single year without fail, and wants at least two offensive weapons in each draft. In every year other than 2016, he has at least one OL pick and has often stated that depth and competition along the OL is paramount (which makes our lack of talent there both infuriating and funny…). One other observation that I have made is that he likes to bring in a free agent, and then have a similar player drafted to learn from him where possible in the same offseason. Such as: Evans and VJax, Grimes with VH3, Marpet with Mankins + Evan Smith (mankins was the year before but it fits my narrative here), Allen + Unrein with Vea, Justin Evans with JJ Wilcox, Bruce Carter with Kwon Alexander. There are a few others but you get the point.
Licht is also not afraid to pick producers from Small schools: Marpet (Hobart - D3), Justin Watson (Penn) and Alex Cappa (Humboldt State - D2). If you can play, and dominate at that level, then you can play.
Draft needs
QB. A backup might be needed if we don’t re-sign Ryan Griffin. Arians loves Jameis. He’s staying.
RB. If the value is right, we will probably pull the trigger knowing Licht, but the talk on the beat is that Jones is not a lost cause and that his issues are all OL based (they’re not wrong with that statement). Turns out being met 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage is bad. I also see this as being plastered over with a FA running back so we will see.
WR. We will pick one. Most likely the 5th or later. It’s what Licht does. We have an established 1 and 2 in Evans and Godwin, if you can find the right value for a slot receiver, then go for it earlier if it makes sense.
Offensive line. Potentially two tackles and one guard even if the value is right. We need at least one premium pick on either a tackle or a guard. Demar Dotson is 34 this season, and if we can’t fix Smith, he will need to be replaced. Also RG has been a black hole of talent and been worse than a turnstile since the retirement of Mankins, and it is very obviously ruining the OL as a whole unit. LT, RT and RG.
TE. If we trade Cam Brate, we could spend a late pick on a backup. If not, we have the best TE set in the league imo.
DE. A long term answer is needed, but there are more pressing issues. If the value is right here however, feel free to pick away in front of need due to positional value.
DT. I expect we will have next to no depth this offseason. Expect multiple picks across the DL and I wouldn’t be surprised if we spend a premium pick on a pass rushing 3T so we have options with GMac moving forward. I think this will be more of a value meets moderate need pick. I personally feel the 3 round is the sweet spot (or a trade back into the second).
LB. If Kwon leaves, this becomes our biggest need. As in feel free to mock White to us number 5 overall type need. If he stays, we could well pick another LB early as Kendal Beckwith’s long term health is in question (leg injury in a car crash kept him on IR all of last year. It’s been about 12 months since the accident and not much progress). If that is the case, it will need to be a SAM LB, or an EDGE who is strong enough to keep contain in a 3-4.
Secondary. It’s a need. Trust me it is. I just don’t see us making a premium pick on it as we spent 3 picks (2 second rounders and a 4th rounder who has looked very promising in Whitehead) last year, and need to see progression. I think this is addressed by bringing in a mid tier FA to help guide the young room. But if you disagree, then feel free to spend a 2nd /3rd round pick on a CB. I doubt we spend a 1st on one unless we trade down in the first.
For some guidance, here are a couple of positional mocks so you can kind of get the idea of what a Bucs draft might look like.
1.05 - DL 2.39 - OT/OG 3.70 - DT 4.101 - RB 5.134 - LB 6.166 - WR
1.10 - OT (Moving back with Denver for their two second rounders as was the price for Buffalo last year) 2.39 - IDL 2.XX - OG 2.XX - DE 3.70 - BPA DL/LB 4.101 - RB 5.134 - LB 6.166 - WR
submitted by hawkie135 to NFL_Draft

Probe's Mock Draft v1.1 (Pre-Combine) -- With Trades and Explanations

QB Carousel:
  • McCarron Bucs
  • Tyrod Broncos
  • Fitz Browns
  • Foles Eagles (for now)
  • McCown Retired
  • Cousins Vikings
  • Brees Saints
  • Bradford Bills
  • Bridgewater Cardinals
  • Keenum Jets
  • Smokin' Jay Retired
Trades/Explanations:
  • Buffalo Gets: 1.03; Indy Gets: 1.21, 1.22, 2.53, 2019 2nd
Buffalo moves up to get the QB they covet, Indy feels confident in return of Luck, trade back with Saquon off the board, now have 2 first and 2 seconds this year, additional second next year.
  • Arizona Gets: 1.04; Cleveland Gets: 1.15, 2.47, 2019 1st
With two QBs off the board in the first three picks the Cardinals pay a kings ransom (two 1sts and a 2nd) for their guy, before it's too late.
  • Indy Gets: 1.06; NYJ Gets: 1.21, 2.36, 2019 2nd (Bills)
Probably the biggest shock of the day. Indy moves back up in the first to grab the draft's elite pass rusher. They use some of the capital from moving down earlier in the process. Despite missing out on Cousins, the Jets aren't confident in any QB at the #6 spot, so they pick up picks. Now have a late first, three seconds (for now), and 2 seconds for 2019.
  • Atlanta Gets: 1.19; Dallas Gets: 1.26, 3.90, 2019 4th
Atlanta moves up to fill a hole in their defense, Dallas snags some draft picks with the confidence they can still make an impact later in the round. BPA wasn't a good fit for Dallas, here.
  • NYJ Gets: 1.29; Jacksonville Gets: 2.35 (via Colts), 4.107
Jets turn one of their three second rounders into another first round pick, Jacksonville picks up another 4th and a second 2nd rounder to move down a few spots.
I did my best not to overpay for any pick. The hardest thing to do is to predict what both teams would accept when looking at what is available on the board.

The Picks:

Pick Team Selection Position School
1.01 Browns Sam Darnold QB USC
Browns pull the trigger on their a franchise QB, or at least they hope Darnold is that guy. I don't have Darnold as my best QB available (I have Rosen #1), but with a ceiling nearly as high as Josh Allen's (and a floor waaay higher), Darnold is a slam dunk here.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.02 Giants Saquon Barkley RB Penn State
After fielding offers from several teams to trade back, the Giants elect to give Eli an elite weapon, instead. Saquon is the best overall player in the draft, barring a disastrous combine he's a lock to go in the Top 5. Giants take him early and don't regret it.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.03 Bills (via Colts) Josh Rosen QB UCLA
Highest floor of any QB in the draft. NFL ready on day one. There is a reason teams are coveting Rosen. He's got the intangibles to be a very good starter in this league for a very long time. Is he a superstar? That remains to be seen, but he's going to be a solid NFL QB, at worst.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.04 Cardinals (via Browns) Lamar Jackson QB Louisville
Cardinals trade up with two QBs going in the first three picks. Jackson is an athletic freak with qualities comparable to Michael Vick. He's got a cannon for an arm and decent size at 6'3, 215. Mobility is a huge plus with Jackson, but he'll need to reign it in to avoid injury in the NFL and rely on his arm more.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.05 Broncos Quenton Nelson OG Notre Dame
John Elway is less convinced of the QBs in this class, especially those not named Jackson, Rosen, and Darnold. He signs Tyrod Taylor to compete with the other QBs on roster and drafts the best OL in the class. Elway's happy with that for now. Remember, "next year" is always the best year to draft a QB.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.06 Colts (via Jets) Bradley Chubb Edge NC State
Colts come away looking like geniuses, taking the guy they very well could have taken #3 at #6, and only have to give back one of the two firsts they received from the Bills. Chubb is the only truly elite pass rusher in this class. Bravo, Colts.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.07 Bucs Minkah Fitzpatrick DB Alabama
T.J. Ward and Brent Grimes are both getting pretty old. Vernon Hargreaves and Chris Conte are both just kinda "meh". Fitzpatrick is an immediate upgrade to the Bucs secondary, and could slot in and start at multiple positions in the Bucs' D.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.08 Bears Denzel Ward CB Ohio State
Bears likely take a long look at Calvin Ridley and Josh Jackson here, but settle on the most athletic CB in the draft in Denzel Ward. Ward is a burner who plays physical and fits in well with what Fangio likes to do on defense. Bears were hoping Nelson would be available here, but the Broncos force Chicago's hand.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.09 Raiders Connor Williams OT Texas
Marshall Newhouse and Donald Penn are not exactly a reliable set of tackles. Gruden's first draft back shows where his priority lies: Protecting star QB Derek Carr. Gruden has confidence in filling defensive holes in later rounds, first priority is keeping Carr upright.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.10 49ers Josh Jackson CB Iowa
Jackson is a ballhawk. He has a skill you cannot teach in his ability to force turnovers. He's tall and long, and extremely good in zone coverage. A perfect fit for the 49ers single high cover 3. Niners pair him with their other tall, long CB (Ahkello Witherspoon) and a weakness has become a strength in San Francisco.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.11 Dolphins Tremaine Edmunds LB Virginia Tech
Edmunds is the most intriguing prospect in the draft. He's 6'5, 240-250 lbs, and only 19 years old. He excels in coverage and is a big time upgrade at WILL over aging Lawrence Timmons.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.12 Bengals Mike McGlinchey OT Notre Dame
The Bengals likely consider Roquan Smith, here, but opt to pursue an upgrade on Jake Fischer, instead. Smith would have been an intriguing choice, but ultimately his size (6'1, 225) counts as a bit of a red flag and the Bengals opt to go OL, instead.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.13 Redskins Calvin Ridley WR Alabama
The best wideout in the draft heads to Washington, where he'll be an immediate upgrade on Terrell Pryor, who is a free agent and had a disappointing season in Washington in 2017. Ridley can do it all and is the most complete receiver in the draft.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.14 Packers Billy Price C/OG Ohio State
Green Bay's two biggest problems are at CB and on the interior of their OL. With both Ward and Jackson off the board, the Packers elect not to reach on a CB and instead upgrade A-A-Ron's protection. Price can play C or OG immediately.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.15 Browns (via Cardinals) Roquan Smith LB Georgia
Smith's size doesn't deter the Browns, who have serious holes in their defense to fill. Smith offers an immediate upgrade on James Burgess and paired with Kirksey/Collins forms a pretty formidable LB corps in Cleveland.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.16 Ravens Courtland Sutton WR SMU
Ravens need weapons to help their offense and they need them desperately. The could upgrade at RB, TE, or WR... but opt for Sutton, who put up monster numbers in college and at 6'4 and 220 has the body to be an immediate threat for Joe Flacco.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.17 Chargers Vita Vea DT Washington
The Chargers have some of the best edge rushers in the business in Bosa and Ingram. Unfortunately for them, Brandon Mebane is old and slow and a major hole in their front seven. Vita Vea is an upgrade to a defense on the rise.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.18 Seahawks Orlando Brown OT Oklahoma
The Seahawks finally address offensive line in the first round of the draft. I know Seahawks fans, I never thought I'd see the day, either. Brown is a massive 6'8 offensive tackle that immediately improves Seattle's swiss cheese OL.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.19 Falcons (via Cowboys) Derwin James S Florida State
James is a hell of an athlete and the second best safety in this class, behind the versatile Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Falcons probably thought James would be off the board at this point, which entices them into trading up to nab him. This makes losing Ricardo Allen to free agency a lot easier to swallow.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.20 Lions Harold Landry Edge Boston College
A lot of people are looking at Derrius Guice as an option here, but with a deep class at RB the Lions are confident they can help the position group later. Instead they opt for Landry, who is an edge rusher to improve upon Ziggy Ansah's lost production.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.21 Jets (via Bills, via Colts) Baker Mayfield QB Oklahoma
Size is really Mayfield's biggest drawback. He is arguably the most talented QB in the class, but teams shy away from picking him in the top 5 due to his lack of size and his off the field antics, which rubs some GMs the wrong way. The Jets, who were not confident in taking a QB at #6, will take one at #21 and be happy with it.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.22 Colts (via Bills) Isaiah Wynn OL Georgia
The most versatile OL in the draft, Isaiah Wynn can fill in at guard, center, or even tackle. This is great news for the Colts, who could really use the help protecting Andrew Luck. Wynn is a great fit for them here. They probably wish they could clone him a few times.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.23 Rams Leighton Vander Esch LB Boise State
LVE is one of the more intriguing prospects in the draft. I've seen him mocked everywhere from Top 15 to the third round. I think a strong combine will solidify his place in the first round, where the Rams are happy to take him as competition for Barron and Ogletree at ILB.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.24 Panthers Isaiah Oliver CB Colorado
Panthers need help at wideout and cornerback. With Sutton off the board, Carolina elects to take a corner, instead of the best WR available (Christian Kirk). Panthers already plenty of options for the slot, but Worley and Bradbury desperately need upgrading.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.25 Titans Marcus Davenport Edge UTSA
Davenport falls further than most expect in the draft, as teams are unconvinced by the competition he faced in college. Tennessee can't pass on the pass rush specialist, however, with Da'Quan Jones out of contract and Derrick Morgan underwhelming.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.26 Cowboys (via Falcons) Da'Ron Payne DT Alabama
Cowboys could chase a CB here, but instead opt to keep building their defensive line. Da'Ron Payne is a disruptive force and an upgrade on Malik Collins. Cowboys will win a lot of battles in the trenches with Payne added to their defensive line.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.27 Saints James Daniels C/OG Iowa
The Saints want to end Drew Brees' career on a high note and the best way to do that is to keep him healthy for as long as he wishes to play. James Daniels is an extremely intelligent center who can slide to guard if necessary. He'll be a good fit in New Orleans.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.28 Steelers Josh Allen QB Wyoming
In a slide reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers' in 2005, Josh Allen goes from being mocked by many at first overall to going at the end of the round to a team that has an aging franchise QB. Allen has a big arm, but needs work on his accuracy and the mental side of his game. He sits behind Big Ben for a year or two while the Steelers develop him.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.29 Jets (via Jaguars) Derrius Guice RB LSU
Jets expected Guice to go earlier, but when he's still on the board at the end of the first, they elect to take one of their three second rounders and package it with a fourth to move up and snag the LSU running back. Jets end the day with Mayfield and Guice, plus two second rounders tomorrow.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.30 Vikings Will Hernandez OG UTEP
The winners of the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes, the Vikings address their biggest need and add another talented offensive lineman, in Will Hernandez. Hernandez is a mammoth OG who will pave the way for Dalvin Cook in 2018.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.31 Patriots Mike Hughes CB UCF
Patriots look hard at both Hughes and Carlton Davis here, but opt for Hughes, who has a slightly higher ceiling, in my opinion. This move helps replace the drop off in production from losing Malcolm Butler in free agency.
Pick Team Selection Position School
1.32 Eagles Rashaan Evans LB Alabama
The Eagles two biggest weaknesses are at CB and Mike LB. They address one of them with the last pick in the first, signing Rashaan Evans out of Alabama. Evans has good length and speed, as well as the strength and instincts to play MLB in the NFL.
submitted by AnalAttackProbe to NFL_Draft

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